Jags continue stellar run defense

Football Betting Lines

10/09/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jacksonville Jaguars must have been playing some old hits from Martha and the Vandellas in the locker room at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium this past Sunday.

If so, the hit song "Nowhere to Run" would have been a perfect pick for the way the Jaguars handled Pro Bowl running back Larry Johnson and the Kansas City Chiefs during a 17-7 victory. Johnson had absolutely nowhere to run and finished the day with a mere 12 yards on nine carries. Kansas City was held to just 10 total yards on the ground -- the second-fewest total in franchise history.

Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio has done an outstanding job with the run defense since a season-opening setback versus Tennessee in which the Titans racked up 282 rushing yards, including a career-high 175 from running back Chris Brown. Jacksonville forced seven punts on Sunday against the Chiefs and would have pitched a shutout had it not been for Brodie Croyle's last-second touchdown pass to Samie Parker. The Jags sacked Kansas City starting quarterback Damon Huard three times before knocking him out of the game with a shoulder injury.

Over the last three games, the Jaguars have allowed a combined 139 yards on the ground in wins over Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City. In a Week 2 victory over the Falcons, Warrick Dunn was held to 50 yards rushing, then Broncos running back Travis Henry ran for just 35 yards the following weekend. We all know what happened to Johnson in Jacksonville's third straight win, which kept the team tied for second with Tennessee in the AFC South. The 5-0 Indianapolis Colts are at the top.

A big reason for the success of the run defense has been the play of monster tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. Stroud leads the defensive lineman with 16 tackles and 2 1/2 sacks, while Henderson, Rob Meier and Paul Spicer each have seven stops and at least one sack. Spicer has two sacks.

An amazing sidebar to Sunday's win at Kansas City is how the Jaguars quieted the sellout crowd at Arrowhead Stadium. The home of the Chiefs has been a house of horrors over time for opposing foes, but Del Rio's bunch didn't care. Jacksonville made itself at home and almost became the third team ever to post a shutout in Arrowhead.

"I try to tell our fans this all the time," Jags star linebacker Mike Peterson said after the game. "They may not think it's big, but that crowd [support] is big, man. When someone makes a play, everybody is screaming and hollering. The guys on the field feed off that. I feed off it. So it was big to be able to take out that crowd early."

Peterson finished second on the team with six tackles on Sunday, while Sammy Knight led the defense with eight stops. Meier and Spicer each had a sack, while rookie safety Reggie Nelson collected his first-career interception against the Chiefs, who registered 271 total yards of offense, 100 of which came via eight receptions for Tony Gonzalez.

The Jaguars will now return home for two straight games against division- rivals Houston and Indianapolis. Jacksonville should have an easy time stopping one of the worst rushing teams in the Texans before the Colts bring one of the top run games to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.

GARRARD GETS JOB DONE

David Garrard is not the best quarterback in the NFL, not the flashiest and certainly doesn't have the strongest arm. But the Jaguars are glad to have him under center.

Garrard has led the Jags to a 3-1 record with his ability to get all of his weapons involved. There is no go-to receiver in Jacksonville because Garrard has faith in every receiver, resulting in 11 different players catching at least one pass this season. In Sunday's win over Kansas City, Garrard completed 20-of-27 passes for 218 yards to nine different players. Dennis Northcutt was Garrard's favorite target this week with four catches for 73 yards and a touchdown.

The athletic Garrard owns a passer rating of 105.4, the fifth-best mark in the NFL behind Peyton Manning's 108.6 rating. He has completed 66.7 percent of his passes and has also rushed for 108 yards. Garrard and Jeff Garcia of Tampa Bay are the only two quarterbacks who haven't thrown an interception this season.

Garrard is the first quarterback in Jacksonville history to not throw an interception in the first four games of a season. Garrard hasn't been picked off since the Chiefs' Ty Law intercepted one of his passes on December 31 of last season.

"My goal as a quarterback is always to win ballgames," Garrard said. "I could care less about stats. My concern is wins and losses. That's always what quarterbacks are judged on."

After previously being criticized for his accuracy and interception ratio, Garrard has joined former Jags signal-caller Mark Brunell as one of the team's two quarterbacks to have a passer rating higher than 100 in three straight starts.

JONES-DREW FINALLY BREAKS OUT

Jaguars second-year running back Maurice Jones-Drew returned to his rookie form on Sunday against Kansas City. After recording no more than 37 yards in each of his first three games this season, Jones-Drew broke out for 82 yards on nine carries along with his first touchdown of 2007.

Jones-Drew gave Jacksonville a 10-0 lead in the second quarter with a 52-yard TD run in which he made a move on Chiefs safety Jarrad Page that had his teammates comparing him to Barry Sanders. Jones-Drew spun Page around much like how Sanders used to during his playing days with the Detroit Lions.

"He made the guy spin around right on the sidelines," said Jags running back Fred Taylor in reference to a Sanders run. "I don't remember the guy's name, he was No. 42, but Sanders made him spin all the way around like a whirlybird. Mo did the same thing."

Being compared to Sanders must have been very flattering for Jones-Drew, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Sanders is a Hall of Famer, Jones-Drew is just starting his promising career.

Jones-Drew, who had 16 touchdowns during his rookie campaign, owns 182 yards on 42 carries for a 4.3 average this season.

UP NEXT: JAGS TRY TO GIVE HOUSTON PROBLEMS

The Jacksonville defense will be ready this Sunday in a showdown against the AFC South-rival Texans. The run defense will certainly be under a microscope after what it has done the past three wins.

Houston is coming off a dramatic home win versus the Miami Dolphins, as kicker Kris Brown booted five field goals, including the game-winner from 57 yards away as time expired. The Texans only had 74 yards rushing, with Ron Dayne's 40 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries leading the way. Starter Ahman Green is still nursing an injury and may not play Sunday in Jacksonville.

The Texans lead the all-time series with Jacksonville by a 6-4 count, including a series sweep in 2006.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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