New Orleans Saints 2007 Season Preview

Football Betting Lines

08/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Those predicting big things for the New Orleans Saints this season should first consult the "The Saints have never..." file.

The Saints, who outlasted Carolina and Atlanta to take the NFC South in 2006, have never won back-to-back division titles in their 40-year history. The last time New Orleans was coming off a division crown, in 2001, the organization promptly went 7-9 and missed the postseason the following year.

The Saints have never won playoff games in two straight seasons. New Orleans' Divisional Round win over Philadelphia last season was only the second postseason win in the organization's annals, and the playoff record now stands at a lowly 2-6 all-time.

The Saints have never played in or won a Super Bowl. To do the former, Sean Payton's team would need to at least double its all-time postseason win total during January of 2008, and would need to surpass that total in order to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time ever.

For their part, New Orleans fans have to believe that history will teach us nothing, at least in this case.

The Saints have a terrific team coming back in 2007, one that is better on paper than the unit that shocked the world by winning seven more games with rookie head coach Payton than it had the year before, and reached the NFC Championship for the first time ever.

All the doom and gloom about the Saints reverting to their traditional losing form is difficult to reconcile with the rising stock of a club that has more stars - Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and Marques Colston primary among them - than at any time in its mostly sad history.

Thus, the message from New Orleans and its passionate fans is for we the pundits to toss that disconcerting "Saints have never" file on the scrap heap.

After all, the Saints have never looked so good.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2007 edition of the New Orleans Saints, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2006 RECORD: 10-6 (1st, NFC South)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2006, lost to Chicago, 39-14, in NFC Championship

COACH (RECORD): Sean Payton (10-6 in one year with Saints, 10-6 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Doug Marrone

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Gary Gibbs

OFFENSIVE STAR: Drew Brees, QB (4418 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Will Smith, DE (49 tackles, 10.5 sacks)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 19th rushing, 1st passing, 5th scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 23rd rushing, 3rd passing, 13th scoring

FIVE KEY GAMES: Indianapolis (9/6), Carolina (10/7), at Atlanta (12/10), Philadelphia (12/23), at Chicago (12/30)

KEY ADDITIONS: RB Antonio Pittman (RB, Ohio State), WR Robert Meachem (1st Round, Tennessee), WR David Patten (from Redskins), TE Eric Johnson (from 49ers), G Andy Alleman (3rd Round, Akron), DT Kendrick Clancy (from Cardinals), LB Dhani Jones (from Eagles), LB Brian Simmons (from Bengals), CB Usama Young (3rd Round, Kent State), CB Jason David (from Colts), S Kevin Kaesviharn (from Bengals), K Olindo Mare (from Dolphins)

KEY DEPARTURES: WR/KR Michael Lewis (released), WR Joe Horn (to Falcons), TE Ernie Conwell (released), G Montrae Holland (to Broncos), DT Willie Whitehead (released), LB Terrence Melton (to Panthers), CB Curtis Deloatch (to Panthers), S Bryan Scott (to Titans), S Omar Stoutmire (to Redskins), K Billy Cundiff (to Falcons), K John Carney (released)

QB: If Brees had any skeptics left, he quieted them during a 2006 season in which he recovered from a serious shoulder injury, learned a new offense, and promptly led the NFL in passing yards en route to leading the Saints within a game of the Super Bowl. Brees was simply magnificent, and if he can stay healthy, the 28-year-old should be at the helm of the New Orleans attack for the better part of the next decade. Backing Brees should again be veteran Jamie Martin (208 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), who would be fine in a pinch but might be in trouble if he has to play for a long stretch. There was a three-way battle for No. 3 quarterback duties during camp, though it wasn't even guaranteed that Payton would choose to keep three signal-callers. Holdover Jason Fife looked to have a slight edge over rookie Tyler Palko and free agent pickup Matt Baker for the would-be third job.

RB: Though he didn't prove himself as an every-down rusher during his first year in New Orleans, there is no disputing the impact that Bush (565 rushing yards, 88 receptions, 8 TD) had on the Saints offense. Bush had over 1,300 combined rushing and receiving yards, more than half of which came on his team-leading 88 receptions. Bush logged only 3.6 yards per carry in the running game, though he came on late with 5.1 yards per tote and five touchdowns during the month of December. New Orleans will continue to ask seven-year vet Deuce McAllister (1057 rushing yards, 10 TD, 30 receptions) to get many of the tough yards, after McAllister rebounded from a serious knee injury to go over the 1,000-yard mark for the fourth time in his career last season. If the Saints choose to keep only three running backs, they will have a serious decision to make between holdover Aaron Stecker (19 receptions), who has been a presence in the lineup for the past three seasons, and fourth-round draft pick and Ohio State product Antonio Pittman. The fullback will again be Mike Karney (33 rushing yards, 15 receptions, 3 TD), who was valuable to the team as a blocker and occasional pass-catcher and ball carrier a year ago.

WR/TE: Few would have predicted the 2006 success of Colston (70 receptions, 8 TD), who was four picks from not being selected in last year's draft and ended up as the most productive receiver on one of the top passing attacks in the league. The Saints thought enough of Colston that they allowed veteran Joe Horn to walk away in the offseason, meaning extra pressure will be on the Hofstra product this year. He will have some help from the likes of Devery Henderson (32 receptions, 5 TD) and Terrance Copper (23 receptions, 3 TD), two players who revived their careers in their first year in Payton's attack, as well as first-round draft choice Robert Meachem. Meachem may not begin the year as a starter, but is expected to gradually become a larger part of the offense as the season progresses. Holdovers Lance Moore and Jamal Jones (6 receptions, 1 TD) were among the others fighting for roster spots during camp, but one or both could be facing a stiff challenge from veteran David Patten. The 33-year-old Patten comes to New Orleans after two disappointing seasons with the Redskins. Eric Johnson (34 receptions, 2 TD), who once caught 82 balls in a season with the 49ers but was plagued by injury problems during six years in San Francisco, is being counted on to replace the departed Ernie Conwell. Holdovers Mark Campbell (18 receptions) and Billy Miller (14 receptions) should back Johnson.

OL: The Saints' offensive line was a major question mark entering 2006, but the group played well enough to keep the attack above the fray. There was a major bit of luck involved in this group coming together. Right tackle Jon Stinchcomb and center Jeff Faine, both of whom had been plagued by injuries during their NFL careers, held up as 16-game starters. Left guard Jamar Nesbit, a longtime backup, also fared well in his first full-time action in years. The rest of the unit was filled out by left tackle Jammal Brown, who delivered on his first-round promise during his second season in the league, and right guard Jahri Evans, a supposed "project" out of Division II Bloomsburg who started from day one of his rookie season. That entire unit is back, though Brown (knee) and Faine (calf) were nursing injuries during the early stages of the preseason. Holdovers Jonathan Goodwin, Rob Petitti, and Zach Strief could be pressed into starting service if injuries persist up front, and 2007 Draft picks Andy Alleman (Akron) and Jermon Bushrod (Towson) will be looked to for a contribution as well.

DL: Though the Saints ranked just 23rd in the league against the run a year ago, the strength of the group is a defensive front four that includes Charles Grant (64 tackles, 6 sacks) and Will Smith at the ends and Brian Young (46 tackles, 6 sacks) and Hollis Thomas (43 tackles, 4 sacks) on the interior. Smith is the club's best pass rusher, and Grant and Thomas were re-signed to lucrative deals that will keep them in New Orleans for the foreseeable future. The biggest question mark up front is Young, who comes off of foot surgery. Either Antwan Lake (9 tackles, 1 sack) or Rodney Leisle (16 tackles), both of whom saw frequent time off the bench last year, would have to play a larger role if Young fails to recover. The team could be in trouble if either of the ends go down, since top backup Rob Ninkovich (4 tackles) is a second-year-pro not quite ready to make an impact and fellow holdover Josh Cooper (10 tackles, 1 sack) has played in six games during three NFL seasons.

LB: As most expected it would be, a New Orleans linebacking corps consisting of castoffs Scott Fujita (96 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT), Mark Simoneau (61 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), and Scott Shanle (97 tackles, 4 sacks) was not the strength of the New Orleans defense last season. The trio wasn't necessarily a disaster either, but there is no disputing that this area of the team must improve in order for the club to take the next step. Enter two more castoffs, ex-Bengal Brian Simmons (60 tackles, 2 INT with Cincinnati) and ex-Eagle Dhani Jones (76 tackles with Philadelphia). Simmons should end up as the starter at middle linebacker ahead of Simoneau, while Jones has a chance to unseat Fujita on the strong side. Shanle's job on the weak side is the most secure of the three. Whatever occurs, New Orleans should have better depth at LB than it did a year ago. Among those fighting for the final roster spot are Troy Evans (14 tackles with Houston), who played in 16 games as a Texans special-teamer a year ago, holdover Alfred Fincher (9 tackles), and seventh-round draft choice Marvin Mitchell (Tennessee).

DB: With the addition of free agents like cornerback Jason David (55 tackles, 2 INT with Indianapolis) and strong safety Kevin Kaesviharn (63 tackles, 6 INT, 4 sacks with Cincinnati), the New Orleans secondary has a chance to be the deepest area of the defense. David will join a corner rotation that includes 2006 starters Mike McKenzie (33 tackles, 2 INT) and Fred Thomas (55 tackles, 1 INT). Thomas' job is in greater jeopardy than that of McKenzie after a difficult postseason for the 11-year vet. Kaesviharn, meanwhile, joins a safety rotation that already includes promising youngsters Roman Harper (26 tackles, 1 sack) and Josh Bullocks (71 tackles, 2 INT). Harper, who played well at strong safety in the early stages of last season, needs to prove that he is over the knee injury that cost him the final 11 games of 2006. In the backup forces, safety Jay Bellamy (16 tackles) and cornerback Jason Craft (47 tackles, 1 INT) are familiar names to Saints fans and can start if needed. Third-round draft choice Usama Young should also be able to find a spot on the team, though he projects mainly as a special teamer in his rookie season.

SPECIAL TEAMS: New Orleans' most controversial move of the offseason apart from Joe Horn's release was cutting loose reliable veteran kicker John Carney and replacing him with erratic ex-Dolphin Olindo Mare (26-36 FG with Miami). Mare has a bigger leg, and at 34 is nine years younger than Carney, but his first significant miss is going to have folks clamoring for the past. There was a competition at punter during camp, with holdover Steve Weatherford (43.8 avg.) battling former Jaguar Chris Hanson (40.6 avg. with Jacksonville) for starting duties, Weatherford looked to have the edge as the preseason neared the midway point. Kevin House will stay on as New Orleans' long snapper. The popular Michael Lewis was released in the offseason, meaning auditions for a new kickoff returner were necessary. Wideout Lance Moore (7.5 punt return avg.) will likely play a role there if he makes the team, and could also be an alternative at punt returner if Payton is uncomfortable using Reggie Bush (7.7 punt return avg., 1 TD) in that spot.

PROGNOSIS: The Saints were not anything resembling a dominant team last year, when a 10-6 record (a mark that has not been good enough to qualify for the playoffs in certain previous cases) gave them an unlikely No. 2 seed and first-round playoff bye in a watered-down NFC. But that's not to say New Orleans wasn't a good team, because it certainly was, with enough playmakers and brilliant coaching to disguise some notable inadequacies. Those shortcomings have been improved, if not completely polished over, during the offseason, making the Saints the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South again. With a year under their collective belt in Payton's offense, look for Brees, Bush, and Colston to shine even brighter than they did in 2006. The key to the club's fortunes once the playoffs begin will be the defense, which is improved but still not top-tier. If New Orleans overachieves in that area when it counts, you can call the Saints a dark horse to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLII.