Top-ranked Gators hit the SEC road

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Auburn, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-ranked Florida Gators continue their feverish run through the SEC, as they travel to Alabama this weekend to battle the Auburn Tigers from the Beard-Eaves Coliseum.

This is the third straight SEC West foe for Florida, which moved to 5-0 in league play with this week's 70-67 win over Mississippi State. Since a loss to Florida State on December 3rd, the Gators have strung together 11 straight victories to move to 18-2 overall.

The Tigers are facing their seventh top-10 team this season and their second ranked opponent in a row, after routing 12th-ranked Alabama this week, 81-57. The victory evened Auburn's league mark at 3-3 and pushed the team to 13-8 overall.

Auburn leads the all-time series with Florida, 86-65, but the Gators have closed the gap a bit with seven straight wins over the Tigers coming into this matchup.

Florida struggled to get a three-point win over Mississippi State this week, as the team shot just .417 from the floor and turned the ball over 15 times. Corey Brewer led the team to victory with a game-high 20 points. Florida trailed at the break by four points, but went on an early run in the second stanza to regain the momentum and earn the win. Taurean Green and Joakim Noah added 11 and 10 points, respectively, while Al Horford just missed a double- double with nine points and 14 rebounds. The Gators have been a much more potent offensive squad on the season, averaging 82.3 ppg, while leading the nation in field-goal percentage (.542). All five starters are averaging double digits, led by Green's 13.5 ppg. Brewer and Noah follow at 12.8 ppg each, with Horford (11.8 ppg) and Lee Humphrey (10.4 ppg) getting into the act as well. Noah and Horford provide the muscle on the glass, combining for just over 17 rebounds per game.

The Tigers are a decent offensive team as well, averaging 73.3 ppg, on a steady .452 shooting. The team also boasts of five double-digit averages, proof of serious scoring depth. Quan Prowell and Rasheem Barrett lead the way with 12.4 ppg each. They are followed closely by Frank Tolbert (12.2 ppg), Korvotney Barber (12.0 ppg) and Josh Dollard (11.6 ppg). Dollard leads the team on the boards at 7.3 rpg, but gets plenty of help from Prowell (7.0 rpg) and Barber (6.3 rpg). Auburn dispensed of Alabama this week thanks to a crushing 25-7 run to open up the second half. The victory halted a seven-game win streak for Alabama in the series, as four Tigers finished in double figures. Barber led the way with 18 points, Tolbert came off the bench to tally 17, followed by Dollard, who had 16. Prowell notched a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds, as Auburn shot .576 from the floor in the game, including a ridiculous .679 in the second half (19-of-28).

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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