Twins aim to continue offensive onslaught in Kansas City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have been scoring runs in bunches during a current three-game winning streak. With the way Carl Pavano has pitched of late, the American League Central contenders may not need such an offensive outburst when they take on the Kansas City Royals tonight at Kauffman Stadium.

The Twins have racked up 36 runs over their three-game surge and reached double digits for the second straight day in last night's 19-1 shellacking of the Royals. The rout came on the heels of a 10-4 victory at Baltimore on Sunday.

Minnesota jumped on Kansas City ace Zack Greinke for six runs in the first inning, capped by a grand slam off the bat of Danny Valencia. Joe Mauer had a three-run homer later in the game as part of a 5-for-5, seven-RBI performance for the reigning AL MVP.

Valencia had a huge night as well, going 4-for-4 with four runs scored in addition to his first career home run.

"What better way to start it off," said Valencia of his slam. "It's nice obviously. Not only to hit a home run, but a grand slam off a guy who's an accomplished big-leaguer and who has won a Cy Young. It was great."

Delmon Young also had four hits, including an RBI double, while Alexi Casilla knocked in three runs to help Minnesota improve to 8-3 since the All-Star break. The surge has moved the Twins within one game of Chicago's lead atop the AL Central.

Minnesota also received excellent pitching from Francisco Liriano (9-7) in Monday's opener of this three-game set, with the talented lefty yielding just three hits and striking out six without a walk over seven shutout innings.

The Twins' pitching staff as a group has lacked consistency this season, but Pavano has emerged as both an ace and a needed workhorse for the rotation. The veteran right-hander, best known for a propensity for injury during the earlier stages of his career, enters tonight's tilt having won seven consecutive decisions and is unbeaten over a nine-start stretch that began on June 9. The Twins have gone 8-1 in those games.

The 34-year-old continued his stellar pitching by firing a five-hit shutout to best Baltimore this past Thursday at Camden Yards. It was Pavano's second straight complete game and the fourth time in his last seven starts he's gone the distance, and the 12-game winner has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last 12 trips to the mound.

Pavano has registered an outstanding 2.40 earned run average over the course of his nine-start undefeated streak and has won four straight decisions on the road, where he's compiled a 6-3 record and a 3.04 ERA in 10 starts thus far in 2010. One of those victories came at Kauffman Stadium, with the rejuvenated hurler holding the Royals to two runs and four hits through seven sharp innings back on April 23.

This will be Pavano's fourth overall matchup with Kansas City this season, and he's 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA over his first three 2010 outings in the series. He's 6-5 in 12 lifetime games (11 starts) against the Royals, but has a 6.62 ERA over that stretch.

He'll be facing a Kansas City club that's lost four of its past five tests and got a miserable showing out of the usually-reliable Greinke (6-10) in the opener. The 2009 AL Cy Young Award recipient was battered for eight runs on eight hits before exiting after only four innings.

"It was bad. Bad everything," Greinke stated afterward.

The Royals will be hoping for an improved effort from the struggling Bruce Chen this evening. The well-traveled left-hander has surrendered 12 runs in a 15-inning span over his last three starts, taking a loss on two of those occasions and a no-decision in the other.

Chen was last in action Thursday at Yankee Stadium, where he was reached for five runs and nine hits over six frames in a loss to AL East-leading New York. He had a similar pitching line in his first start following the All-Star break, permitting four runs on nine hits through 5 2/3 innings in a July 17 no-decision against Oakland.

The 33-year-old went 4-3 with a solid 3.66 ERA over his first seven starts since joining the Royals' rotation in late May, but has pitched to a 7.20 figure during his three-game winless run.

Chen did notch a victory over the Twins on June 10, despite allowing five runs and 10 hits in 6 1/3 innings. The win was the Panama native's first in three career decisions against Minnesota, and he's recorded an unimpressive 6.08 ERA in 12 appearances (two starts) versus tonight's foe.

The Twins have won seven of 10 versus the Royals this year, as well as 15 of the last 19 overall meetings between the teams. Minnesota is also 17-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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